Where Went The Tenth?

Once upon a time, like back in February when Bill Delahunt announced his retirement, there was a lot of thinking that Republicans could win the race this November for his replacement in the 10th District. After all, it's one of the least-Democratic districts in the state, and in January its voters went gaga over Scotto Brown. The Republicans got two legit candidates -- former Treasurer Joe Malone, and state rep Jeff Perry -- while the Dems got two solid, but hardly overwhelming candidates in DA William Keating and state senator Robert O'Leary.

National analysts differed on their views, but the Cook Political Report, for one, had the race rated "Tossup" back in the spring.

Cook has since moved the race to "Leans Dem," and others seem even more convinced -- Rothenberg, for instance, has it just shy of completely safe for the Democrats.

Last week, First Read and The Fix updated their lists of districts most likely to flip -- 30 for Fix, 64 for First Read -- and MA-10 didn't make the cut for either of them.

And to top it off, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) expanded its list of targets -- districts where they are reserving ad time -- to 60, and MA-10 ain't one of them.

Now, I realize that Perry is kind of imploding with a series of embarrassing stories from his past. And Malone hasn't raised huge amounts of money. But then again, neither have Keating or O'Leary.

I also realize that what seems like a competitive race in Massachusetts might not be quite the same as what seems like one in other parts of the country.

But I don't have the impression that Democrats think this is in the bag -- not at all. So, I ask you all: how should this race be rated?