In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I analyze the at-large Boston City Council race coming out ofthe preliminary election, which narrowed the field to eight. I find that local politicos believe that -- unlike other recent at-large races -- the top four in the preliminary will end up as the four winners in November.

Enthusiasm from supporters was high this morning at the Martha Coakley press conference, where EMILY's List, the Massachusetts Women's Political Caucus (MWPC), and a bunch of female state legislators formally expressed their endorsement of the Attorney General in her campaign for the US Senate. Enthusiasm from the press was perhaps more tepid -- I counted only about a dozen journalists in the room.

According to sources inside the campaign, mayoral candidate Michael Flaherty will hold a press conference with Sam Yoon tomorrow morning, at which they will announce the formation of a Flaherty/Yoon "ticket."

This is far more than an endorsement. I don't know all the details, but Yoon will be campaigning as Flaherty's "running mate," and would be appointed deputy mayor if Flaherty wins the November election.

As this blog's readers know, I've been an avid follower of the "Comrade of the Month" award instituted this year by conservative advocacy group Club for Growth. So I've been quite frustrated this summer. First, they gave the June award to all 219 House members who voted in favor of the Waxman-Markey energy/environment (ie, cap-and-trade) bill, which was such a broad brush that it really didn't lend itself to my ongoing critiques.

--On September 1st, I predicted on Twitter and Facebook that Paul Kirk would be the temporary Senate appointee -- I believe I was the first to publicly float his name for it. The next day a Boston Phoenix editorial advocating Kirk for the position went online. (To the best of my knowledge, that was also the first place where the point was made that Kennedy's staff had ceased its constituent-services work, and a temporary appointment would allow them to re-start it.

Hmmm... Seems like some commenters don't appreciate my expert analysis. Oh well.

Anyway, let's back up and look at what I prognosticated and analyzed the last time I was asked, about a month ago -- and whether it still stands. First off:

I think that the prelim top four will likely be Murphy-Connolly-Pressley-Arroyo.

My early thoughts on today's Boston preliminary election results:

--Winner: Once and future Mayor Thomas M. Menino. I wrote that he wanted to get above 50%. It didn't look like he was going to make it. But damned if he didn't pull it off, just barely. A very impressive victory showing off a very, very impressive vote-pulling operation.

61,090 votes through 6:00pm, so still on target for roughly 75,000. Voting is strong in Southie, Eastie, West Roxbury, Savin Hill area. There seems to be a little life in the Grove Hall/Franklin Field/Fields Corner sections of the black community. Not so much in Roxbury, despite the Chuck Turner primary. Worst of all: areas thick with younger, whiter, professional-class progressives.

According to Election Department figures obtained by the Phoenix, 42,527 had voted in Boston as of 3:00, keeping the city on pace for roughly 75,000 ballots by my projection.

That 42,527 is 87% of the 48,870 who had voted by 3:00 in the 2006 gubernatorial primary.

South Boston's Wards 6 & 7 are the only two wards with higher turnout than in the 2006 gubernatorial primary, as of 3:00.

As of noon, 27,495 people have voted in Boston. Ward 18 (incl. Hyde Park) seems to be catching back up to where it should be -- while Ward 20 (West Roxbury) is dropping off its earlier pace.

Here's an interesting, if perhaps meaningless, statistic: by my count, as of noon 13,880 votes had been cast in precincts where Flaherty beat Yoon in 2007, and 13,588 had been cast in precincts where Yoon beat Flaherty in 2007.

As of 9:00 this morning, 13,171 people had voted in Boston, according to Boston Election Department data obtained by the Phoenix.

That suggests total turnout a little closer to the gubernatorial primary of September 2006 (close to 90,000) than to the last city-wide municipal preliminary in September 2005 (just over 40,000).

13 hours until polls open in Boston....

--In 2005, there were 15 names on the ballot for at-large. But the bottom 7, who were knocked out, were non-factors: combined they received just over 13% of the total votes cast. (There were 40,802 ballots, with 128,246 total votes.) The top vote-getter in the prelim (Flaherty) took just about 14% of the votes, while the 8th-place (Ed Flynn) took close to 9%.

The Globe did indeed endorse in the at-large council prelim today, as I so brilliantly foresaw yesterday. They went the Herald three better, picking eight candidates -- which kinda makes sense because eight candidates will get through, but kinda doesn't because voters get to pick four on their ballot.

It's also unclear whether the order means something.

Carlos Henriquez got a Boston Globe endorsement today for his district council bid against Chuck Turner, which is surprising not because they picked him, but because the paper decided to endorse for the preliminary election.

This probably means the Globe will do at-large council endorsements too, most likely tomorrow.

From time to time in politics there's an accusation of subliminal ad messaging -- usually that some negative word or phrase on screen briefly overlaps an image of the opponent's face, in a way that you can't see unless you go frame-by-frame.

Well, I'm sorry to say that Allston-Brighton District Council candidate Alex Selvig seems to have done it -- to himself