Q&A #1: Cahill's Chances

"Martin" asks via email, to start off our Ask Me Anything Day:

True or false:  Cahill has no chance to become governor!

I won't say no chance, but it's a very slim chance.

His problem is that it's awfully unlikely that Charlie Baker will fade into also-ran status -- that just doesn't happen to a major-party candidate in a competitive race, unless the party ends up with a complete joke of a nominee. Baker is not a joke. So it's hard to imagine this becoming a straight Patrick-Cahill race, with Baker down in the teens or single digits. It's also hard to imagine Patrick falling below a 35% or so base of Democratic support. That means Cahill's only likely window is a narrow victory in an evenly split three-way race -- but even that requires Baker to fall below 30%. (Also, many insiders believe that if Cahill ultimately emerges as the greater threat to Patrick, the governor's campaign team is ready to unload a deadly assault on him.)