Democratic Governor John Baldacci almost lost the June 13 primary vote in Washington County to a total unknown with no money and a weird campaign theme. In that economically depressed corner of Maine, Baldacci edged political neophyte Christopher Miller by less than 100 votes.
The unexpected closeness of this particular county race had nothing to do with Miller’s message, something about stopping all growth (Washington County has already achieved that) and ending oil imports, and a lot to do with Baldacci’s image as somebody who can’t get the job done. The governor has repeatedly blocked efforts to build a casino near Calais, while proposing assorted alternatives, none of which has, to date, produced a single job.
Washington County Democrats weren’t so much voting for Miller as they were supporting somebody whose name didn’t appear on the ballot: N. E. “Buddy” Butdisguy.
Unfortunately for those disgruntled Dems — and luckily for the incumbent governor — there’ll be lots of people on the November ballot claiming to be that candidate. Baldacci emerged from the primary not only with a three-to-one victory over Miller in statewide results, but also with a fractured field of six general-election opponents, custom-designed to dilute the impact of the 61 percent of Maine voters who’ve told pollsters they’d rather eat clams infected with red tide than support Baldacci for a second term.
Republicans made Baldacci’s quest for four more years easier by nominating state senator Chandler Woodcock. Not only will Woodcock have to spend the next five months defending himself from liberal charges that he’s a conservative ideologue, he’ll also have to fend off attacks from his right.
Independent John Michael has already staked out his position as the resident right-wing extremist in this race. If Woodcock is against abortion, Michael is more against it. If Woodcock opposes same-sex marriage, Michael abhors it. If Woodcock is a lay preacher, Michael is some kind of messiah.
A Woodcock supporter dismissed concerns Michael could draw votes from the GOP nominee. “It’ll be hard to paint Chandler as a scary, wacko conservative,” he said, “because we’ve already got a real, scary, wacko conservative in the race.”
Michael received about 2 percent of the vote when he ran in 2002. Even if he qualifies for public financing this year, he’s too off-the-wall to do much more than double that support. But the loss of even a small number of ultra-conservatives could do real damage to Woodcock’s chances. With middle-of-the-road voters split seven ways in this election, every candidate will have to pay particular attention to motivating his or her base. A crucial part of Woodcock’s core support comes from the religious right, a voting bloc he can’t afford to share with Michael. But he also can’t afford to appear too extreme for fear of alienating moderate independents.
Those swing voters will be important to most of the candidates (except Michael, who’ll rely on nuts). But no gubernatorial contender needs them more than state representative Barbara Merrill, the Democrat-turned-independent.
“Merrill is the wild card,” said a GOP political activist. “She could gain traction and turn into a Sherry Huber-type candidate, or she could drop away to 5 percent.”
